Thailand growth: ADB upwards its forecasts

This entry was posted on 2018-10-04
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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised Thailand's economic growth forecast to 4.5 percent for this year and 4.3 percent in 2019.

Last week the central bank of Thailand also announced its economic growth forecasts, a little less optimistic, at 4.4% this year and 4.2% in 2019.

4.8% growth in the first half

This new upward revision of the ADB estimates comes after a robust growth of 4.8% in the first half in a context of improving economic prospects.

"In terms of domestic consumption, the government is helping low-income consumers, which is helping to support domestic demand," said Thiam Hee Ng, AfDB economist commenting on the release of the latest ADB report 2018: Maintaining stability in a context of heightened uncertainty ".

Public investment should remain strong thanks to massive investments in government infrastructure.

While exports and tourism should also contribute to growth, Mr Ng said.

After performing well in the first half, exports should continue to contribute to growth this year and next.

The dollar value of merchandise exports is expected to continue to grow at an annual rate of 10% this year and next.

Large foreign exchange reserves

With regard to US Federal Reserve rate hikes that have put pressure on several emerging markets, Ng said that sufficient foreign exchange reserves and a large current account surplus should protect Thailand from external shocks.

The second-largest economy in Southeast Asia has international reserves of more than $ 200 billion (6,400 billion baht).

Growth in Southeast Asia is expected to be 5.1% this year, slightly lower than the previous year.

This is due to the moderation of export growth, weak domestic demand, inflation, and net capital outflows.

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